Clinton or Trump: Who is better for India's trade?
The Dollar Business Bureau
With the election day in US looming near, India is more concerned about who becomes the next POTUS. More so because of the growing awareness in public life that the US is an important partner for India. Trade between the two countries has more than quadrupled to exceed $100 billion. The US is India’s second largest supplier of defence equipment after Russia. In broad strategic terms a continuation in the relationship holds more importance to New Delhi. So, as America prepares to give its choice, India waits knowing that its role as a strategic player will weigh on the mind of the next POTUS.
India and its media have played their cards well in trying to keep both the contenders happy. While Trump hasn’t spelled out much about policies, his stance about trade and immigration has been hawkish. But as trade pundits and analyst predictions reveal, Trump could prove to be more beneficial to India than what he has projected if elected. Clinton has been ‘just a friend’ to India for over 20 years now. The first 8 years as the First Lady, another 8 as Senator and last 4 as Secretary of State. If elected to power will she work to enhance this friendly relationship? She might continue to simply hold India’s hand just as Obama did. In other words, it would be status-quo in every sense of the term.
On the other hand a Trump Presidency to India might, as his speeches and talks suggest, that he would lift the Indo-US relationship and make it work ‘amazingly’ well. Though this in no way refers to India in clear terms, because his views on economic relations with India and the immigration issues have been ambivalent. But, a Trump’s entry into the White House would mean he would have taken control of the Republican reins and wrested those states loyal to the Democrats - the Rust Belt states from their vice-like grip. And in the same power disturb the power balance in India, giving it more importance than China.
It is a known fact that Pakistan and China have been milking the US cash cow, albeit in different ways for many decades. China’s huge trade surplus runs into a whopping $366 billion as per 2015 trade figures; while Pakistan on the other hand devious enough to play double games with Russia and US and in the process soaking more than $30 billion of US aid since 2002, all indicate that if Trump is the next President shall put a halt to the milking. He will by keeping to his election promises, bring back a number of manufacturing jobs that were lost to China in the past 15 years. And the only way this can happen is by offsetting China’s trade cart by imposing a mixture of tariff and non-tarriff barriers. Such a move will be detrimental to a China that has for decades taken advantage of the credit-fuelled investment that US companies have in that country. For China this could mean trouble with a big ‘T’ as a trade war (slower growth to recession) with the Big Brother could upset its domestic balance. In the process of Trump’s show of regaining power over Asia if US makes a marked change in its free trade policies, then India could lose some outsourcing or technology jobs, a risk that India could afford to take as in the long run China’s manufacturing loss could be India’s gain.
