India’s export to grow at 5.96% in Jan-Mar 2018: Exim Bank

The Dollar Business Bureau

India’s exports of goods are likely to grow at the rate of 5.96% during the January to March quarter of the current fiscal, according to the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank).

“India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 5.96% during the fourth quarter of 2017-18 (January-March 2018), over the corresponding quarter of the previous year,” the EXIM Bank said in a release on Thursday.

The forecast is based on the Export Leading Index (ELI) model of the bank, it said.

Exim Bank has created an in-house model to generate ELI for India in order to track and forecast the movement in the country’s exports on quarterly basis. The ELI measures the exports outlook and is basically developed as a leading indicator for forecasting the country’s merchandise exports’ growth, on the basis of various external and internal factors that could have an impact on the exports.

“Based on the model (which considers 2011-12 as base year), Exim Bank's leading index for the country's exports (ELI) came in at 113.56 for the fourth quarter of 2017-18,” the release said.

The Exim Bank will continue to forecast the growth of India’s exports on a quarterly basis.

The bank would release forecasts during the first week of months of June, September, December and March, for the corresponding quarters, with constant improvisation to the ELI model.

“The next growth forecast for India's exports for April-June 2018 would be released during the first week of June 2018,” it said.