India’s services exports likely to triple by 2030: HSBC

The Dollar Business Bureau

Services exports from India are likely to grow more than three-fold by 2030, increasing the country’s share to 4% in global services exports, according to a report by a leading international bank.

Though the speedy growth rates of double-digit during 2001-08 are not expected to resume, exports of services are estimated to grow at a healthy rate of 8-9% year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in the coming 15 years, said HSBC in a report on India trade.

While China and the US will remain the dominant export partners of India, we expect a shift towards the emerging markets. In the short-term, services exports to Turkey are expected to increase at a strong pace, led by increasing demand for exports of financial and transport services,” HSBC said.

“However, over a longer term, exports to East Asian markets are likely to gather speed, with China and Indonesia leading the way,” it added.

Information and communications technology (ICT) services are expected to remain the backbone of services exports from India and their share in world ICT services exports is likely to increase slightly to 18% by 2030 from the present 17%.

Other business services exports, such as finance, and transport services are other segments where the growth is expected to be robust, with construction services also picking up growth gradually in the long-term.

Though the share of tourism sector falls over the estimated period, the country will continue to benefit from the increasing global travelling class and latest trends such as medical tourism.

Finally, the trade barriers are equally applicable to exports of services as of goods. In fact, these barriers are often costlier for services than for goods. In spite of India’s remarkable performance in services exports, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicts that it has been one of the major barriers to world trade. Therefore, India would evidently stand to benefit from trade liberalisation in the coming years, the report said.