India's exports in August show a moderate decline

The Dollar Business Bureau

The country’s exports in August showed a modest decline from that of October 2015, which could be leading to a positive growth in the coming months say experts. Merchandise exports in August shrank to 0.3% y-o-y to $21.5 bn due to a weak global demand combined with that of a decline in exports of petroleum products.

Exports

Exports were valued at $21518.60 million (Rs.144044.67 crore) which was 0.30 per cent lower in dollar terms (2.56% higher in rupee terms) than the level of $ 21582.67 million (Rs.140443.43 crore) during August, 2015.

Reacting to the trade data which showed a modest decline of 0.3%, S C Ralhan, President FIEO said that “the decline in exports has largely been arrested and we can look for a positive growth after a month or so helping us to reach around $280 bn of exports in 2016-17.”

Cumulative value of exports for the period April-August 2016-17 was $108519.94 million (Rs.726776.04 crore) as against $111853.88 million (Rs.713808.46 crore) registering a negative growth of 2.98 per cent in dollar terms and positive growth of 1.82 per cent in rupee terms over the same period last year. Non-petroleum exports in August 2016 are valued at $19084.31million against $18749.42 million in August 2015, an increase of 1.79 %. Non-petroleum exports during April to August 2016 are valued at $96983.74 million as compared to $97485.84 million for the corresponding period in 2015, showing a reduction of 0.52%.

India is not alone when it comes to reduction in the growth of exports as the latest WTO statistics show overall there has been a decline in the growth of exports for the biggies too. The US experienced a decline of (-4.35%), EU (-2.16%) and China (-4.94%). Positive indicators were seen in Japan which exhibited a growth of 8.67% in June 2016 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

Imports

Imports for August were valued at $29192.74 million (around Rs.195415 crore) which was 14.09% lower in dollar terms and 11.63% lower in rupee terms from the level of imports valued at $33981.73 million (around Rs.221127) in August, 2015. The cumulative value of imports for the period April-August 2016-17 was $143189.49 million (Rs.959102.25 crore) as against $170234.30 million (Rs.1086515.26 crore) registering a decline of 15.89% in dollar terms and 11.73% in rupee terms from the level in the same period last year.

There has been a decline in the import of crude oil too in the month of August 2016, which was valued at $ 6743.85 million, 8.47% lower than $7367.75 million of the same period last year. August seemed to be better compared to the imports seen between April-August which was 22.08% lower, valued at $32410.81 million than that of US$ 41593.53 million in the corresponding period last year.

Non-oil imports too declined when compared to that of the same period last year. Non-oil imports in August, were at $ 22448.89 million which was 15.65% lower than that of $26613.98 million seen in August, 2015. Non-oil imports during April-August 2016-17 were valued at $110778.68 million which was 13.89% lower than the imports in April-August, 2015-16, which was at $128640.77 million.

Trade in Services

As far as exports in services are concerned, the July figures (latest) released by RBI showed a decline of 4.11%. They were valued at $12775 million (Rs.85857.71crore) when compared to the negative growth of 1.03% seen in June 2016. Imports in services too showed a decline in July 2016, which was valued at $7409 million (Rs. 49794.11 Crore) a negative growth of 11.68% in dollar terms as compared to the positive growth of 5.89% during June 2016 (as per RBI’s Press Release for the respective months).

Trade Balance

The trade deficit in merchandise for April-August, 2016-17 was estimated at $34669.55 million which was 40.61% lower than the deficit of $58380.42 million during April-August, 2015-16.

The net export of services for July 2016 (as per the RBI Press Release dated 15th September 2016) was estimated at $5366 million. The net export of services for April- July, 2016-17 was estimated at $21562 million which is lower than the net export of services of $22371 million during April- July, 2015-16. (The data for April-July 2015-16 and 2016-17 has been derived by adding April-July month wise QE data of RBI Press Release).

The overall the trade balance has improved. Taking merchandise and services together, overall trade deficit for April- August 2016-17 is estimated at $13107.55 million which is 63.60% lower than $36009.42 million during April-August 2015-16. (Services data pertains to April-July 2016 as July 2016 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15th September 2016).