Monsoon to be above normal: Met Dept
After two years of so-called less-than-normal-monsoon, the country will experience “above normal” monsoon this year, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted on Tuesday.
In its first forecast of this season, the IMD said the country will receive fair amount of rainfall across the country, and it will be a good year.
The IMD said monsoon seasonal rainfall is estimated to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during June to September this year.
The forecast is sure to cheer people across all parts of the country, who have been reeling under drought, resulting in minimum agricultural production and drinking water; the industry whose domestic output has suffered and the government who can bank on a better agricultural production to boost the country’s economy.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitely, as well as several international research bodies, has for long underscored that a better agricultural production could have added to the country’s existing GDP growth.
The latest forecast suggests that that the El Nino, a climate cycle phenomenon responsible for weather patterns across the globe, is expected to weaken, to moderate to weak during the first half of the monsoon season, in the Pacific Ocean, which is an indication that India will witness normal to above normal monsoon this season.
“Analysis of previous data suggests that monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole was deficient or below normal (less than 96% of LPA) during 65% of the El Nino years. However, during 71% of the years followed by El Nino years, monsoon was normal and above (96% of LPA). The latest forecast from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Climate Model indicates that El Nino conditions to weaken to moderate to weak levels during the first half of the monsoon season and ENSO neutral conditions likely to get established thereafter,” the IMD said in its forecast release.
to success.