USDA lowers forecast for meat production in 2017

The Dollar Business Bureau 

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday lowered the forecast for overall production of meat in 2017 to 100.1 billion pounds (lb) against the 100.4 billion pounds estimated last month. However, it raised the forecast for production in 2018 from the previous 102.8 billion lb to 103 billion lb. 

“Beef production for 2017 was lowered to 26.3 billion lb primarily due to lighter carcass weights, which will more than offset expected increased slaughter in the later part of 2017, USDA said in its latest report “World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates” released on June 9. 

The expectations for further placements are backing up a higher beef forecast in 2018 of 27.2 billion lb, the report added. 

For 2017, pork production estimates were lowered to 25.9 billion lb, said USDA, while adding that this was due to the present pace of slaughter in the second-quarter and light carcass weights. The forecast for 2018 production was kept unchanged at 27.9 billion lb. 

The production of broiler for 2017 was also lowered on the basis of second-quarter slaughter pace, the report stated. 

It also lowered the estimate for turkey production in the second quarter of this year, taking into account the present pace of slaughter. Weaker demand restricting the expansion rate also made USDA to lower the estimates for turkey production in the third-quarter. 

Based on latest hatchery data, USDA raised its forecast for egg production for 2017. 

Beef trade estimates for 2017 and 2018 was unchanged from last month's forecast. The forecast for pork exports for the current year remain unchanged compared to last month, however, USDA raised the import estimates.

Broiler import forecast for the second-quarter of this year was lowered on the basis of latest trade data, but there were no changes in the outlying quarters. Broiler exports forecast for this year was unchanged, but the turkey export forecast was lowered due to weaker demand, according to the report.

The forecast for milk production has been lowered by USDA for the current as well as next year compared to last month’s estimates. Fat basis exports for 2017 and 2018 were cut on the predictions that the current higher prices will impact export demand. However, it raised the estimates for skim-solid basis exports for 2017 as well as 2018 on expected strengthening of demand for nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder. The current year’s fat basis import estimates were raised on account of stronger cheese and butterfat imports. 

“For 2018, lower expected imports of some processed dairy products more than offset higher expected imports of cheese and butterfat, and the forecast for fat basis imports is lowered,” USDA said.